TrialCurveCONFIRM: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Nivolumab versus placebo in patients with relapsed malignant mesothelioma (CONFIRM): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, phase 3 trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | Lancet Oncol. 2021 Nov;22(11):1530–40. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00471-X |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00471-X |
| Registry | NCT03063450 |
| Phase | Phase 3 |
| Conditions | Mesothelioma |
| Interventions | Nivolumab, Placebo |
| Sponsor | University of Southampton |
| Enrolment | 332 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Progression-free survival
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Placebo group 1.8 months; Nivolumab group 2.9 months. Survival at 12 months: Placebo group 7%; Nivolumab group 14%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab group vs Placebo group 0.66 (95% CI 0.51–0.83).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Placebo group | 111 | 101 | 1.8 |
| Nivolumab group | 221 | 195 | 2.9 |
- Nivolumab group vs Placebo group: reconstructed HR 0.66 (95% CI 0.51–0.83)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Placebo group | Nivolumab group |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 19.9% | 30.7% |
| 12 mo | 7.1% | 14.2% |
| 18 mo | 4.7% | 6.5% |
| 24 mo | 4.7% | 5.2% |
Checks against the published figure
- Nivolumab group median: printed 3, reconstructed 2.91 pass
- Placebo group median: printed 1.8, reconstructed 1.79 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.67, reconstructed 0.655 pass
Overall survival
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab group 10.2 months; Placebo group 6.9 months. Survival at 12 months: Nivolumab group 43%; Placebo group 30%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab group vs Placebo group 0.69 (95% CI 0.52–0.92).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nivolumab group | 221 | 134 | 10.2 |
| Placebo group | 111 | 75 | 6.9 |
- Nivolumab group vs Placebo group: reconstructed HR 0.69 (95% CI 0.52–0.92)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Nivolumab group | Placebo group |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 68.1% | 55.5% |
| 12 mo | 43.3% | 30.3% |
| 18 mo | 31.0% | 21.3% |
| 24 mo | 24.5% | 17.0% |
| 36 mo | 21.0% | 17.0% |
Checks against the published figure
- Nivolumab group median: printed 10.2, reconstructed 10.2 pass
- Placebo group median: printed 6.9, reconstructed 6.89 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.69, reconstructed 0.689 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/confirm-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/confirm-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: Lancet Oncol. 2021 Nov;22(11):1530–40. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00471-X doi:10.1016/S1470-2045(21)00471-X. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/confirm
Report a problem with these data
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