TrialCurveCOPELIA: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Cediranib with weekly paclitaxel or olaparib versus weekly paclitaxel for advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer (COPELIA): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, phase 2 trial in the UK. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | eClinicalMedicine. 2026 Jun 16;96:104012. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104012 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104012 |
| Registry | NCT03570437 |
| Phase | Phase 2 |
| Conditions | Carcinosarcoma, Endometrial Neoplasms |
| Interventions | Paclitaxel, Cediranib, Olaparib |
| Sponsor | University of Manchester |
| Enrolment | 124 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Progression-free survival
From figure panel A · curves cross-checked by two independent readings · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib 6.8 months; Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib 4.3 months; Arm 1: Paclitaxel only 5.4 months. Survival at 6 months: Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib 50%; Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib 40%; Arm 1: Paclitaxel only 41%. Hazard ratio Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib vs Arm 1: Paclitaxel only 0.66 (95% CI 0.42–1.06).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib | 41 | 34 | 6.8 |
| Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib | 42 | 37 | 4.3 |
| Arm 1: Paclitaxel only | 41 | 38 | 5.4 |
- Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib vs Arm 1: Paclitaxel only: reconstructed HR 0.66 (95% CI 0.42–1.06)
- Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib vs Arm 1: Paclitaxel only: reconstructed HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.54–1.36)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib | Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib | Arm 1: Paclitaxel only |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 50.4% | 39.8% | 41.1% |
| 12 mo | 20.6% | 11.4% | 10.3% |
| 18 mo | 11.8% | — | 2.6% |
Overall survival
From figure panel B · curves cross-checked by two independent readings · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib 18.1 months; Arm 1: Paclitaxel only 13.0 months; Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib 13.9 months. Survival at 12 months: Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib 61%; Arm 1: Paclitaxel only 53%; Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib 65%. Hazard ratio Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib vs Arm 1: Paclitaxel only 0.77 (95% CI 0.44–1.32).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib | 41 | 25 | 18.1 |
| Arm 1: Paclitaxel only | 41 | 27 | 13.0 |
| Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib | 42 | 30 | 13.9 |
- Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib vs Arm 1: Paclitaxel only: reconstructed HR 0.77 (95% CI 0.44–1.32)
- Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib vs Arm 1: Paclitaxel only: reconstructed HR 0.96 (95% CI 0.56–1.62)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Arm 2: Paclitaxel plus Cediranib | Arm 1: Paclitaxel only | Arm 3: Olaparib plus Cediranib |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 86.9% | 71.0% | 76.1% |
| 12 mo | 60.7% | 53.4% | 64.6% |
| 18 mo | 50.5% | 24.6% | 36.8% |
| 24 mo | 33.9% | 20.5% | 18.8% |
| 36 mo | 17.4% | 16.4% | 9.4% |
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/copelia-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/copelia-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: eClinicalMedicine. 2026 Jun 16;96:104012. doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104012 doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104012. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/copelia
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