TrialCurveST03: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Peri-operative chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab in operable oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (UK Medical Research Council ST03): primary analysis results of a multicentre, open-label, randomised phase 2-3 trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | Lancet Oncol. 2017 Mar;18(3):357–70. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30043-8 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30043-8 |
| Registry | NCT00450203 |
| Phase | Phase 2, Phase 3 |
| Conditions | Oesophagogastric Cancer |
| Interventions | bevacizumab, capecitabine, cisplatin, Epirubicin, adjuvant therapy, conventional surgery |
| Sponsor | Professor David Cunningham |
| Enrolment | 1103 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Overall survival — All randomly assigned patients
From figure panel · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine 33.2 months; Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine plus bevacizumab 33.4 months. Survival at 18 months: Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine 68%; Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine plus bevacizumab 66%. Hazard ratio Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine vs Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine plus bevacizumab 0.93 (95% CI 0.79–1.11).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine | 533 | 265 | 33.2 |
| Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine plus bevacizumab | 530 | 278 | 33.4 |
- Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine vs Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine plus bevacizumab: reconstructed HR 0.93 (95% CI 0.79–1.11)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine | Epirubicin, cisplatin, and capecitabine plus bevacizumab |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 90.0% | 88.6% |
| 12 mo | 77.7% | 76.5% |
| 18 mo | 67.9% | 66.4% |
| 24 mo | 61.2% | 58.2% |
| 36 mo | 48.4% | 46.6% |
| 48 mo | 43.0% | 39.4% |
| 60 mo | 40.2% | 36.1% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio: printed 1.08, reconstructed 1.07 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/st03-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/st03-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: Lancet Oncol. 2017 Mar;18(3):357–70. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30043-8 doi:10.1016/S1470-2045(17)30043-8. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/st03
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