TrialCurveTOPICAL: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
First-line erlotinib in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer unsuitable for chemotherapy (TOPICAL): a double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | Lancet Oncol. 2012 Nov;13(11):1161–70. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70412-6 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70412-6 |
| Registry | — |
| Phase | — |
| Conditions | — |
| Interventions | — |
| Sponsor | — |
| Enrolment | — |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Overall survival — All patients
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Erlotinib 3.7 months; Placebo 3.6 months. Survival at 6 months: Erlotinib 36%; Placebo 32%. Hazard ratio Erlotinib vs Placebo 0.94 (95% CI 0.80–1.09).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erlotinib | 350 | 323 | 3.7 |
| Placebo | 320 | 302 | 3.6 |
- Erlotinib vs Placebo: reconstructed HR 0.94 (95% CI 0.80–1.09)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Erlotinib | Placebo |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 36.1% | 31.8% |
| 12 mo | 15.5% | 14.0% |
| 18 mo | 9.9% | 7.7% |
Checks against the published figure
- Erlotinib events: printed 343, reconstructed 323 pass
- Erlotinib n: printed 350, reconstructed 350 pass
- Placebo events: printed 314, reconstructed 302 pass
- Placebo n: printed 320, reconstructed 320 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.94, reconstructed 0.935 pass
Progression-free survival — All patients
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Erlotinib 2.8 months; Placebo 2.6 months. Survival at 6 months: Erlotinib 21%; Placebo 12%. Hazard ratio Erlotinib vs Placebo 0.83 (95% CI 0.71–0.96).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erlotinib | 350 | 336 | 2.8 |
| Placebo | 320 | 313 | 2.6 |
- Erlotinib vs Placebo: reconstructed HR 0.83 (95% CI 0.71–0.96)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Erlotinib | Placebo |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 21.1% | 11.7% |
| 12 mo | 8.9% | 3.5% |
| 18 mo | 5.5% | 2.5% |
Checks against the published figure
- Erlotinib events: printed 343, reconstructed 336 pass
- Erlotinib n: printed 350, reconstructed 350 pass
- Placebo events: printed 320, reconstructed 313 pass
- Placebo n: printed 320, reconstructed 320 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.83, reconstructed 0.825 pass
Overall survival — Patients on erlotinib by first-cycle rash, and placebo
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Erlotinib, rash 6.2 months; Placebo 4.1 months; Erlotinib, no rash 2.9 months. Survival at 6 months: Erlotinib, rash 53%; Placebo 37%; Erlotinib, no rash 26%. Hazard ratio Erlotinib, rash vs Erlotinib, no rash 0.56 (95% CI 0.44–0.71).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erlotinib, rash | 178 | 159 | 6.2 |
| Placebo | 278 | 263 | 4.1 |
| Erlotinib, no rash | 124 | 117 | 2.9 |
- Erlotinib, rash vs Erlotinib, no rash: reconstructed HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.44–0.71)
- Placebo vs Erlotinib, no rash: reconstructed HR 0.76 (95% CI 0.61–0.94)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Erlotinib, rash | Placebo | Erlotinib, no rash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 52.6% | 36.7% | 25.8% |
| 12 mo | 22.9% | 16.7% | 10.9% |
| 18 mo | 14.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
Checks against the published figure
- Erlotinib, no rash events: printed 120, reconstructed 117 pass
- Erlotinib, no rash n: printed 124, reconstructed 124 pass
- Erlotinib, rash events: printed 175, reconstructed 159 pass
- Erlotinib, rash n: printed 178, reconstructed 178 pass
- Placebo events: printed 272, reconstructed 263 pass
- Placebo n: printed 278, reconstructed 278 pass
- hazard ratio: printed 1.3, reconstructed 1.32 pass
- hazard ratio: printed 0.76, reconstructed 0.734 pass
Progression-free survival — Patients on erlotinib by first-cycle rash, and placebo
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Erlotinib, rash 3.4 months; Placebo 2.9 months; Erlotinib, no rash 2.5 months. Survival at 6 months: Erlotinib, rash 31%; Placebo 14%; Erlotinib, no rash 16%. Hazard ratio Erlotinib, rash vs Erlotinib, no rash 0.61 (95% CI 0.48–0.77).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erlotinib, rash | 178 | 165 | 3.4 |
| Placebo | 278 | 268 | 2.9 |
| Erlotinib, no rash | 124 | 121 | 2.5 |
- Erlotinib, rash vs Erlotinib, no rash: reconstructed HR 0.61 (95% CI 0.48–0.77)
- Placebo vs Erlotinib, no rash: reconstructed HR 0.90 (95% CI 0.73–1.12)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Erlotinib, rash | Placebo | Erlotinib, no rash |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 31.4% | 14.2% | 16.1% |
| 12 mo | 13.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% |
| 18 mo | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% |
Checks against the published figure
- Erlotinib, no rash events: printed 122, reconstructed 121 pass
- Erlotinib, no rash n: printed 124, reconstructed 124 pass
- Erlotinib, rash events: printed 173, reconstructed 165 pass
- Erlotinib, rash n: printed 178, reconstructed 178 pass
- Placebo events: printed 278, reconstructed 268 pass
- Placebo n: printed 278, reconstructed 278 pass
- hazard ratio: printed 1.09, reconstructed 1.11 pass
- hazard ratio: printed 0.66, reconstructed 0.646 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/topical-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/topical-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: Lancet Oncol. 2012 Nov;13(11):1161–70. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70412-6 doi:10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70412-6. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/topical
Report a problem with these data
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