TrialCurveFURVA: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Fulvestrant plus vandetanib versus placebo for the treatment of patients with metastatic breast cancer resistant to aromatase inhibitor therapy (FURVA): a multicentre, Phase 2, randomised controlled trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | BJC Rep. Author manuscript; Available in PMC 2025 Feb 24. |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1038/s44276-023-00016-8 |
| Registry | NCT02530411 |
| Phase | Phase 2 |
| Conditions | Neoplasms |
| Interventions | Fulvestrant, Vandetanib |
| Sponsor | Velindre NHS Trust |
| Enrolment | 160 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Progression-free survival
From figure panel a · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Fulvestrant plus vandetanib 5.5 months; Fulvestrant plus placebo 5.6 months. Survival at 18 months: Fulvestrant plus vandetanib 20%; Fulvestrant plus placebo 16%. Hazard ratio Fulvestrant plus vandetanib vs Fulvestrant plus placebo 0.85 (95% CI 0.61–1.18).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulvestrant plus vandetanib | 80 | 69 | 5.5 |
| Fulvestrant plus placebo | 85 | 75 | 5.6 |
- Fulvestrant plus vandetanib vs Fulvestrant plus placebo: reconstructed HR 0.85 (95% CI 0.61–1.18)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Fulvestrant plus vandetanib | Fulvestrant plus placebo |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 43.7% | 46.0% |
| 12 mo | 28.0% | 25.9% |
| 18 mo | 20.0% | 15.7% |
| 24 mo | 18.2% | 10.8% |
| 36 mo | 6.8% | 3.6% |
| 48 mo | 2.3% | — |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.9, reconstructed 0.85 pass
Overall survival
From figure panel b · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Fulvestrant plus vandetanib 19.5 months; Fulvestrant plus placebo 19.9 months. Survival at 18 months: Fulvestrant plus vandetanib 53%; Fulvestrant plus placebo 56%. Hazard ratio Fulvestrant plus vandetanib vs Fulvestrant plus placebo 0.95 (95% CI 0.63–1.45).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulvestrant plus vandetanib | 80 | 42 | 19.5 |
| Fulvestrant plus placebo | 85 | 47 | 19.9 |
- Fulvestrant plus vandetanib vs Fulvestrant plus placebo: reconstructed HR 0.95 (95% CI 0.63–1.45)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Fulvestrant plus vandetanib | Fulvestrant plus placebo |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 84.4% | 87.3% |
| 12 mo | 71.1% | 76.6% |
| 18 mo | 53.1% | 55.8% |
| 24 mo | 42.7% | 34.3% |
| 36 mo | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| 48 mo | 6.1% | — |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.92, reconstructed 0.954 pass
Progression-free survival — By RET expression (Low RET vs High RET)
From figure panel · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: High RET 8.8 months; Low RET 4.0 months. Survival at 18 months: High RET 27%; Low RET 7%. Hazard ratio High RET vs Low RET 0.47 (95% CI 0.31–0.72).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| High RET | 48 | 41 | 8.8 |
| Low RET | 67 | 62 | 4.0 |
- High RET vs Low RET: reconstructed HR 0.47 (95% CI 0.31–0.72)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | High RET | Low RET |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 68.5% | 33.7% |
| 12 mo | 39.9% | 20.4% |
| 18 mo | 27.0% | 6.8% |
| 24 mo | 24.3% | 2.3% |
| 36 mo | 12.1% | — |
| 48 mo | 3.0% | — |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.49, reconstructed 0.47 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/furva-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/furva-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: BJC Rep. Author manuscript; Available in PMC 2025 Feb 24. doi:10.1038/s44276-023-00016-8. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/furva
Report a problem with these data
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