TrialCurveCulmerciclib + fulvestrant in HR+/HER2− breast cancer: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Novel CDK2/4/6 inhibitor culmerciclib (TQB3616) plus fulvestrant in previously treated, HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer: a randomized, double-blind, phase 3 trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | Signal Transduct Target Ther. 2025 Dec 18;10:414. doi: 10.1038/s41392-025-02475-6 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1038/s41392-025-02475-6 |
| Registry | NCT05375461 |
| Phase | Phase 3 |
| Conditions | HR-positive,HER2-negative in Advanced Breast Cancer |
| Interventions | TQB3616 capsules, TQB3616-matching placebo, Fluvestrin injection |
| Sponsor | Chia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. |
| Enrolment | 293 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Overall survival — Overall population
From figure panel b · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Culmerciclib + Fulvestrant not reached; Placebo + Fulvestrant not reached. Survival at 6 months: Culmerciclib + Fulvestrant 97%; Placebo + Fulvestrant 99%. Hazard ratio Culmerciclib + Fulvestrant vs Placebo + Fulvestrant 0.70 (95% CI 0.38–1.28).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Culmerciclib + Fulvestrant | 194 | 25 | not reached |
| Placebo + Fulvestrant | 99 | 18 | not reached |
- Culmerciclib + Fulvestrant vs Placebo + Fulvestrant: reconstructed HR 0.70 (95% CI 0.38–1.28)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Culmerciclib + Fulvestrant | Placebo + Fulvestrant |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 97.4% | 99.0% |
| 12 mo | 89.6% | 87.8% |
| 18 mo | 79.5% | 74.0% |
Checks against the published figure
- Culmerciclib + Fulvestrant events: printed 25, reconstructed 25 pass
- Culmerciclib + Fulvestrant n: printed 194, reconstructed 194 pass
- Placebo + Fulvestrant events: printed 18, reconstructed 18 pass
- Placebo + Fulvestrant n: printed 99, reconstructed 99 pass
- hazard ratio: printed 0.67, reconstructed 0.7 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
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