TrialCurvePATHWAY: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
A phase 3 study (PATHWAY) of palbociclib plus tamoxifen in patients with HR-positive/HER2-negative advanced breast cancer. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | NPJ Breast Cancer. 2024 Aug 22;10:76. doi: 10.1038/s41523-024-00684-w |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1038/s41523-024-00684-w |
| Registry | NCT03423199 |
| Phase | Phase 3 |
| Conditions | Breast Neoplasms |
| Interventions | Palbociclib, Placebo, Tamoxifen, Goserelin |
| Sponsor | National Cancer Center, Japan |
| Enrolment | 180 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Progression-free survival by investigator assessment
From figure panel a · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Palbociclib–Tamoxifen 24.4 months; Placebo–Tamoxifen 11.1 months. Survival at 18 months: Palbociclib–Tamoxifen 57%; Placebo–Tamoxifen 32%. Hazard ratio Palbociclib–Tamoxifen vs Placebo–Tamoxifen 0.56 (95% CI 0.40–0.79).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palbociclib–Tamoxifen | 91 | 61 | 24.4 |
| Placebo–Tamoxifen | 93 | 77 | 11.1 |
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen vs Placebo–Tamoxifen: reconstructed HR 0.56 (95% CI 0.40–0.79)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Palbociclib–Tamoxifen | Placebo–Tamoxifen |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 76.9% | 62.8% |
| 12 mo | 62.9% | 46.3% |
| 18 mo | 56.9% | 31.7% |
| 24 mo | 50.9% | 24.4% |
| 36 mo | 32.7% | 19.0% |
| 48 mo | 27.5% | 12.2% |
Checks against the published figure
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen median: printed 24.4, reconstructed 24.4 pass
- Placebo–Tamoxifen median: printed 11.1, reconstructed 11.1 pass
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen events: printed 61, reconstructed 61 pass
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen n: printed 91, reconstructed 91 pass
- Placebo–Tamoxifen events: printed 77, reconstructed 77 pass
- Placebo–Tamoxifen n: printed 93, reconstructed 93 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.602, reconstructed 0.565 pass
Progression-free survival by blinded independent central review
From figure panel b · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Palbociclib–Tamoxifen 35.0 months; Placebo–Tamoxifen 12.9 months. Survival at 18 months: Palbociclib–Tamoxifen 66%; Placebo–Tamoxifen 33%. Hazard ratio Palbociclib–Tamoxifen vs Placebo–Tamoxifen 0.44 (95% CI 0.23–0.84).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palbociclib–Tamoxifen | 40 | 17 | 35.0 |
| Placebo–Tamoxifen | 36 | 23 | 12.9 |
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen vs Placebo–Tamoxifen: reconstructed HR 0.44 (95% CI 0.23–0.84)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Palbociclib–Tamoxifen | Placebo–Tamoxifen |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 80.9% | 75.4% |
| 12 mo | 74.3% | 57.0% |
| 18 mo | 66.4% | 32.5% |
| 24 mo | 58.1% | 19.5% |
| 36 mo | 35.5% | 13.0% |
| 48 mo | 35.5% | 6.5% |
Checks against the published figure
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen median: printed 35, reconstructed 35 pass
- Placebo–Tamoxifen median: printed 12.9, reconstructed 12.9 pass
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen events: printed 17, reconstructed 17 pass
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen n: printed 40, reconstructed 40 pass
- Placebo–Tamoxifen events: printed 23, reconstructed 23 pass
- Placebo–Tamoxifen n: printed 36, reconstructed 36 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.443, reconstructed 0.443 pass
Overall survival
From figure panel · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Palbociclib–Tamoxifen not reached; Placebo–Tamoxifen not reached. Survival at 18 months: Palbociclib–Tamoxifen 95%; Placebo–Tamoxifen 88%. Hazard ratio Palbociclib–Tamoxifen vs Placebo–Tamoxifen 0.74 (95% CI 0.45–1.22).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palbociclib–Tamoxifen | 91 | 27 | not reached |
| Placebo–Tamoxifen | 93 | 35 | not reached |
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen vs Placebo–Tamoxifen: reconstructed HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.45–1.22)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Palbociclib–Tamoxifen | Placebo–Tamoxifen |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 100.0% | 96.8% |
| 12 mo | 98.8% | 93.5% |
| 18 mo | 95.3% | 88.2% |
| 24 mo | 93.0% | 78.3% |
| 36 mo | 79.1% | 66.9% |
| 48 mo | 63.4% | 59.7% |
Checks against the published figure
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen events: printed 27, reconstructed 27 pass
- Palbociclib–Tamoxifen n: printed 91, reconstructed 91 pass
- Placebo–Tamoxifen events: printed 35, reconstructed 35 pass
- Placebo–Tamoxifen n: printed 93, reconstructed 93 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.73, reconstructed 0.74 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
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