TrialCurveSECRAB: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Synchronous versus sequential chemo-radiotherapy in patients with early stage breast cancer (SECRAB): A randomised, phase III, trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | Radiother Oncol. 2020 Jan;142:52–61. doi: 10.1016/j.radonc.2019.10.014 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1016/j.radonc.2019.10.014 |
| Registry | NCT00003893 |
| Phase | Phase 3 |
| Conditions | Breast Cancer |
| Interventions | CMF regimen, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin hydrochloride, epirubicin hydrochloride, fluorouracil, methotrexate |
| Sponsor | University Hospital Birmingham |
| Enrolment | 2250 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Local recurrence
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Cumulative incidence at 3 years: Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) 2%; Sequential (CT-RT) 3%. Hazard ratio Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) vs Sequential (CT-RT) 0.63 (95% CI 0.43–0.91).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) | 1150 | 45 | not reached |
| Sequential (CT-RT) | 1146 | 71 | not reached |
- Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) vs Sequential (CT-RT): reconstructed HR 0.63 (95% CI 0.43–0.91)
Cumulative incidence (reconstructed)
| Time | Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) | Sequential (CT-RT) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 yr | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 2 yr | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 3 yr | 2.0% | 3.1% |
| 5 yr | 2.7% | 5.1% |
| 7 yr | 3.6% | 5.7% |
| 10 yr | 4.6% | 7.1% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.62, reconstructed 0.629 pass
Loco-regional in-field recurrence
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Cumulative incidence at 3 years: Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) 2%; Sequential (CT-RT) 3%. Hazard ratio Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) vs Sequential (CT-RT) 0.64 (95% CI 0.44–0.93).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) | 1150 | 47 | not reached |
| Sequential (CT-RT) | 1146 | 73 | not reached |
- Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) vs Sequential (CT-RT): reconstructed HR 0.64 (95% CI 0.44–0.93)
Cumulative incidence (reconstructed)
| Time | Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) | Sequential (CT-RT) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 yr | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| 2 yr | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| 3 yr | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| 5 yr | 2.8% | 5.2% |
| 7 yr | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| 10 yr | 4.8% | 7.3% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.63, reconstructed 0.641 pass
Disease free survival
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) not reached; Sequential (CT-RT) not reached. Survival at 3 years: Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) 84%; Sequential (CT-RT) 84%. Hazard ratio Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) vs Sequential (CT-RT) 1.00 (95% CI 0.87–1.15).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) | 1150 | 390 | not reached |
| Sequential (CT-RT) | 1146 | 388 | not reached |
- Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) vs Sequential (CT-RT): reconstructed HR 1.00 (95% CI 0.87–1.15)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) | Sequential (CT-RT) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 yr | 96.4% | 95.7% |
| 2 yr | 89.8% | 89.5% |
| 3 yr | 83.9% | 83.5% |
| 5 yr | 75.7% | 75.2% |
| 7 yr | 70.5% | 70.7% |
| 10 yr | 64.8% | 65.1% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.99, reconstructed 0.999 pass
Overall survival
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) not reached; Sequential (CT-RT) not reached. Survival at 3 years: Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) 90%; Sequential (CT-RT) 90%. Hazard ratio Sequential (CT-RT) vs Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) 0.97 (95% CI 0.83–1.14).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) | 1147 | 317 | not reached |
| Sequential (CT-RT) | 1146 | 309 | not reached |
- Sequential (CT-RT) vs Synchronous (CT-RT-CT): reconstructed HR 0.97 (95% CI 0.83–1.14)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Synchronous (CT-RT-CT) | Sequential (CT-RT) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 yr | 98.4% | 98.4% |
| 2 yr | 94.7% | 94.0% |
| 3 yr | 90.1% | 90.1% |
| 5 yr | 83.0% | 82.4% |
| 7 yr | 77.6% | 77.9% |
| 10 yr | 72.0% | 73.2% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 1.02, reconstructed 1.03 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/secrab-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/secrab-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: Radiother Oncol. 2020 Jan;142:52–61. doi: 10.1016/j.radonc.2019.10.014 doi:10.1016/j.radonc.2019.10.014. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/secrab
Report a problem with these data
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