What was the median overall survival in CheckMate 648 (Tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%)?

Reconstructed medians (Months): Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 13.9; Chemotherapy alone 9.3. See the published article for the official values.

What was the hazard ratio for overall survival in CheckMate 648 (Tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%)?

The figure reports a hazard ratio of 0.62 (95% CI 0.48–0.8) for Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone. TrialCurve's reconstruction gives 0.622.

What was the median overall survival in CheckMate 648 (All randomized)?

Reconstructed medians (Months): Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 12.9; Chemotherapy alone 10.8. See the published article for the official values.

What was the hazard ratio for overall survival in CheckMate 648 (All randomized)?

The figure reports a hazard ratio of 0.77 (95% CI 0.65–0.92) for Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone. TrialCurve's reconstruction gives 0.799.

What was the median progression-free survival (per bicr) in CheckMate 648 (Tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%)?

Reconstructed medians (Months): Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 3.9; Chemotherapy alone 4.4. See the published article for the official values.

What was the hazard ratio for progression-free survival (per bicr) in CheckMate 648 (Tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%)?

The figure reports a hazard ratio of 1.04 (95% CI 0.79–1.36) for Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone. TrialCurve's reconstruction gives 1.02.

What was the median progression-free survival (per bicr) in CheckMate 648 (All randomized)?

Reconstructed medians (Months): Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 2.8; Chemotherapy alone 5.6. See the published article for the official values.

What was the hazard ratio for progression-free survival (per bicr) in CheckMate 648 (All randomized)?

The figure reports a hazard ratio of 1.26 (95% CI 1.04–1.51) for Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone. TrialCurve's reconstruction gives 1.23.

What was the median duration of response (per bicr) in CheckMate 648 (Responders, tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%)?

Reconstructed medians (Months): Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 11.7; Chemotherapy alone 5.7. See the published article for the official values.

What was the median duration of response (per bicr) in CheckMate 648 (Responders, all randomized)?

Reconstructed medians (Months): Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 11.1; Chemotherapy alone 7.2. See the published article for the official values.

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CheckMate 648: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves

Updated 2026-09-25 · reconstructed by TrialCurve from a CC BY-licensed publication

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy or ipilimumab versus chemotherapy in patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (CheckMate 648): 29-month follow-up from a randomized, open-label, phase III trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.

Publication	Cancer Med. 2024 May 8;13(9):e7235. doi: 10.1002/cam4.7235
DOI	10.1002/cam4.7235
Registry	NCT03143153
Phase	Phase 3
Conditions	Various Advanced Cancer
Interventions	Nivolumab, Ipilimumab, Cisplatin, Fluorouracil
Sponsor	Bristol-Myers Squibb
Enrolment	970
Source licence	Figure published under CC BY 4.0

Overall survival — Tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%

From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 15.5 months; Chemotherapy alone 9.2 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 46%; Chemotherapy alone 20%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone 0.62 (95% CI 0.48–0.79).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	158	125	15.5
Chemotherapy alone	157	129	9.2

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.62 (95% CI 0.48–0.79)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	82.7%	73.7%
12 mo	57.0%	37.0%
18 mo	45.5%	20.0%
24 mo	31.5%	11.6%
36 mo	17.3%	9.2%
48 mo	10.0%	6.1%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy median: printed 15, reconstructed 15.5 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 9.1, reconstructed 9.16 pass
hazard ratio: printed 0.59, reconstructed 0.618 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Overall survival — All randomized

From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 12.8 months; Chemotherapy alone 10.8 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 40%; Chemotherapy alone 29%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone 0.82 (95% CI 0.69–0.98).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	321	255	12.8
Chemotherapy alone	324	259	10.8

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.69–0.98)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	78.6%	74.6%
12 mo	53.3%	44.8%
18 mo	39.8%	28.7%
24 mo	28.6%	19.3%
36 mo	16.5%	13.0%
48 mo	12.6%	11.0%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy median: printed 12.8, reconstructed 12.8 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 10.7, reconstructed 10.8 pass
hazard ratio: printed 0.78, reconstructed 0.825 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Progression-free survival (per BICR) — Tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%

From figure panel C · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 6.8 months; Chemotherapy alone 4.4 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 15%; Chemotherapy alone 2%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone 0.65 (95% CI 0.49–0.85).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	158	121	6.8
Chemotherapy alone	157	99	4.4

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.49–0.85)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	56.1%	40.4%
12 mo	24.8%	9.8%
18 mo	15.1%	2.0%
24 mo	12.0%	2.0%
36 mo	7.5%	2.0%
48 mo	—	2.0%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy median: printed 6.8, reconstructed 6.77 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 4.4, reconstructed 4.39 pass
hazard ratio: printed 0.67, reconstructed 0.646 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Progression-free survival (per BICR) — All randomized

From figure panel D · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 5.6 months; Chemotherapy alone 5.4 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 14%; Chemotherapy alone 7%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone 0.78 (95% CI 0.65–0.94).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	321	239	5.6
Chemotherapy alone	324	217	5.4

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.65–0.94)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	49.1%	42.4%
12 mo	23.0%	17.5%
18 mo	14.4%	7.3%
24 mo	14.4%	3.1%
36 mo	8.1%	3.1%
48 mo	4.1%	3.1%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy median: printed 5.8, reconstructed 5.56 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 5.6, reconstructed 5.36 pass
hazard ratio: printed 0.83, reconstructed 0.78 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Duration of response (per BICR) — Responders, tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%

From figure panel E · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 8.3 months; Chemotherapy alone 5.6 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 22%; Chemotherapy alone 13%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone 0.65 (95% CI 0.38–1.12).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	83	58	8.3
Chemotherapy alone	31	19	5.6

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.38–1.12)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	66.2%	37.4%
12 mo	39.2%	12.8%
18 mo	22.0%	12.8%
24 mo	22.0%	12.8%
36 mo	9.5%	12.8%
48 mo	—	12.8%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy median: printed 8.4, reconstructed 8.27 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 5.7, reconstructed 5.62 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Duration of response (per BICR) — Responders, all randomized

From figure panel F · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 8.0 months; Chemotherapy alone 7.1 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus chemotherapy 24%; Chemotherapy alone 13%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone 0.78 (95% CI 0.56–1.10).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	152	101	8.0
Chemotherapy alone	86	54	7.1

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.56–1.10)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus chemotherapy	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	64.9%	53.0%
12 mo	38.9%	22.2%
18 mo	24.2%	12.9%
24 mo	21.0%	12.9%
36 mo	16.1%	9.7%
48 mo	8.0%	9.7%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus chemotherapy median: printed 8.2, reconstructed 8.01 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 7.1, reconstructed 7.05 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Overall survival — Tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%

From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 13.9 months; Chemotherapy alone 9.3 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 41%; Chemotherapy alone 22%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone 0.62 (95% CI 0.48–0.80).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	158	122	13.9
Chemotherapy alone	157	132	9.3

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.62 (95% CI 0.48–0.80)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	74.5%	73.1%
12 mo	57.2%	36.7%
18 mo	40.9%	21.6%
24 mo	33.7%	12.3%
36 mo	20.1%	9.4%
48 mo	20.1%	4.7%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab median: printed 13.1, reconstructed 13.9 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 9.1, reconstructed 9.31 pass
hazard ratio: printed 0.62, reconstructed 0.622 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Overall survival — All randomized

From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 12.9 months; Chemotherapy alone 10.8 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 40%; Chemotherapy alone 29%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone 0.80 (95% CI 0.67–0.95).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	325	249	12.9
Chemotherapy alone	324	256	10.8

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.80 (95% CI 0.67–0.95)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	73.7%	77.8%
12 mo	52.7%	44.7%
18 mo	39.9%	28.7%
24 mo	32.7%	19.3%
36 mo	20.5%	13.4%
48 mo	17.9%	—

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab median: printed 12.7, reconstructed 12.9 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 10.7, reconstructed 10.8 pass
hazard ratio: printed 0.77, reconstructed 0.799 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Progression-free survival (per BICR) — Tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%

From figure panel C · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 3.9 months; Chemotherapy alone 4.4 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 17%; Chemotherapy alone 3%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone 1.02 (95% CI 0.77–1.34).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	158	125	3.9
Chemotherapy alone	157	96	4.4

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 1.02 (95% CI 0.77–1.34)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	34.3%	41.2%
12 mo	26.4%	10.3%
18 mo	17.2%	2.8%
24 mo	16.3%	2.8%
36 mo	10.5%	2.8%
48 mo	10.5%	2.8%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab median: printed 4, reconstructed 3.86 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 4.4, reconstructed 4.42 pass
hazard ratio: printed 1.04, reconstructed 1.02 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Progression-free survival (per BICR) — All randomized

From figure panel D · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 2.8 months; Chemotherapy alone 5.6 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 14%; Chemotherapy alone 7%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone 1.23 (95% CI 1.03–1.48).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	325	270	2.8
Chemotherapy alone	324	216	5.6

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.03–1.48)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	30.7%	42.1%
12 mo	21.5%	16.4%
18 mo	13.5%	7.2%
24 mo	11.6%	4.1%
36 mo	7.7%	3.1%
48 mo	7.7%	3.1%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab median: printed 2.9, reconstructed 2.75 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 5.6, reconstructed 5.58 pass
hazard ratio: printed 1.26, reconstructed 1.23 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Duration of response (per BICR) — Responders, tumor cell PD-L1 ≥1%

From figure panel E · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 11.7 months; Chemotherapy alone 5.7 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 36%; Chemotherapy alone 12%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone 0.53 (95% CI 0.29–0.95).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	55	35	11.7
Chemotherapy alone	31	19	5.7

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.29–0.95)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	66.1%	36.5%
12 mo	49.4%	12.5%
18 mo	35.9%	12.5%
24 mo	35.9%	12.5%
36 mo	23.5%	12.5%
48 mo	—	12.5%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab median: printed 11.8, reconstructed 11.7 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 5.7, reconstructed 5.67 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

Duration of response (per BICR) — Responders, all randomized

From figure panel F · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model

Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 11.1 months; Chemotherapy alone 7.2 months. Survival at 18 months: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab 32%; Chemotherapy alone 13%. Hazard ratio Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone 0.65 (95% CI 0.45–0.96).

Arm	N	Events	Median (Months)
Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	89	59	11.1
Chemotherapy alone	86	52	7.2

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab vs Chemotherapy alone: reconstructed HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.45–0.96)

Landmark survival (reconstructed)

Time	Nivolumab plus ipilimumab	Chemotherapy alone
6 mo	66.0%	53.6%
12 mo	47.5%	22.5%
18 mo	32.4%	13.1%
24 mo	29.0%	13.1%
36 mo	20.2%	9.8%
48 mo	—	9.8%

Checks against the published figure

Nivolumab plus ipilimumab median: printed 11.1, reconstructed 11.1 pass
Chemotherapy alone median: printed 7.1, reconstructed 7.19 pass

Download pseudo-IPD (CSV)

About these data

Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.

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