TrialCurveNeoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy vs adjuvant therapy in ESCC: reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Long-Term Survival Outcomes of NCRT With Surgery vs Surgery With Adjuvant Therapy for ESCC: A Single-Center Prospective Phase 3 Randomized Clinical Trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | JAMA Netw Open. 2026 Jan 5;9(1):e2550307. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.50307 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.50307 |
| Registry | NCT06775652 |
| Phase | Phase 3 |
| Conditions | Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC) |
| Interventions | Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy, Adjuvant therapy, Surgery |
| Sponsor | Yongtao Han |
| Enrolment | 254 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Overall survival
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: AT not reached; NCRT not reached. Survival at 18 months: AT 81%; NCRT 81%. Hazard ratio AT vs NCRT 0.94 (95% CI 0.63–1.41).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AT | 112 | 44 | not reached |
| NCRT | 118 | 50 | not reached |
- AT vs NCRT: reconstructed HR 0.94 (95% CI 0.63–1.41)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | AT | NCRT |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 94.6% | 98.3% |
| 12 mo | 88.4% | 90.7% |
| 18 mo | 81.3% | 80.5% |
| 24 mo | 75.0% | 76.3% |
| 36 mo | 67.0% | 64.4% |
| 48 mo | 62.5% | 60.2% |
| 60 mo | 61.3% | 57.4% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 1.01, reconstructed 1.07 pass
Disease-free survival
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: AT not reached; NCRT not reached. Survival at 18 months: AT 72%; NCRT 66%. Hazard ratio AT vs NCRT 0.87 (95% CI 0.59–1.27).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AT | 108 | 48 | not reached |
| NCRT | 116 | 56 | not reached |
- AT vs NCRT: reconstructed HR 0.87 (95% CI 0.59–1.27)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | AT | NCRT |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 89.8% | 84.5% |
| 12 mo | 82.4% | 75.0% |
| 18 mo | 72.2% | 66.4% |
| 24 mo | 64.8% | 62.0% |
| 36 mo | 60.2% | 57.6% |
| 48 mo | 57.4% | 53.1% |
| 60 mo | 55.3% | 51.1% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 1.13, reconstructed 1.15 pass
Overall survival — Patients with cTNM III-IVA disease
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: NCRT not reached; AT 51.4 months. Survival at 18 months: NCRT 78%; AT 75%. Hazard ratio NCRT vs AT 0.82 (95% CI 0.52–1.30).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCRT | 87 | 38 | not reached |
| AT | 72 | 36 | 51.4 |
- NCRT vs AT: reconstructed HR 0.82 (95% CI 0.52–1.30)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | NCRT | AT |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 97.7% | 91.7% |
| 12 mo | 89.7% | 81.9% |
| 18 mo | 78.2% | 75.0% |
| 24 mo | 74.7% | 69.4% |
| 36 mo | 62.1% | 59.7% |
| 48 mo | 57.5% | 55.6% |
| 60 mo | 56.2% | 49.6% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.82, reconstructed 0.822 pass
Disease-free survival — Patients with cTNM III-IVA disease
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: NCRT not reached; AT 37.0 months. Survival at 18 months: NCRT 64%; AT 63%. Hazard ratio AT vs NCRT 1.09 (95% CI 0.70–1.69).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCRT | 85 | 42 | not reached |
| AT | 68 | 37 | 37.0 |
- AT vs NCRT: reconstructed HR 1.09 (95% CI 0.70–1.69)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | NCRT | AT |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 83.5% | 83.8% |
| 12 mo | 72.9% | 75.0% |
| 18 mo | 63.5% | 63.2% |
| 24 mo | 59.9% | 58.8% |
| 36 mo | 53.9% | 52.9% |
| 48 mo | 51.4% | 47.1% |
| 60 mo | 50.0% | 47.1% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.93, reconstructed 0.922 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
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