TrialCurveNEOCRTEC5010 (long-term follow-up): reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Long-term Efficacy of Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Plus Surgery for the Treatment of Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: The NEOCRTEC5010 Randomized Clinical Trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | JAMA Surg. 2021 Jun 23;156(8):721–9. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2021.2373 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1001/jamasurg.2021.2373 |
| Registry | NCT01216527 |
| Phase | Phase 3 |
| Conditions | Squamous Cell Esophageal Carcinoma |
| Interventions | Neo-adjuvant Chemoradiotherapy followed by Surgery, surgery |
| Sponsor | Sun Yat-sen University |
| Enrolment | 430 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Overall survival — Intention-to-treat population
From figure panel · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: NCRT group 95.3 months; Surgery group 53.9 months. Survival at 18 months: NCRT group 81%; Surgery group 77%. Hazard ratio NCRT group vs Surgery group 0.74 (95% CI 0.57–0.96).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCRT group | 224 | 99 | 95.3 |
| Surgery group | 227 | 124 | 53.9 |
- NCRT group vs Surgery group: reconstructed HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.57–0.96)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | NCRT group | Surgery group |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 97.7% | 95.1% |
| 12 mo | 91.8% | 85.8% |
| 18 mo | 80.6% | 76.9% |
| 24 mo | 74.5% | 70.9% |
| 36 mo | 65.5% | 57.8% |
| 48 mo | 63.6% | 52.6% |
| 60 mo | 59.6% | 49.2% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.74, reconstructed 0.74 pass
Disease-free survival — Patients with margin-zero resection
From figure panel · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: NCRT group 110.1 months; Surgery group 36.2 months. Survival at 18 months: NCRT group 77%; Surgery group 62%. Hazard ratio NCRT group vs Surgery group 0.59 (95% CI 0.45–0.79).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCRT group | 182 | 79 | 110.1 |
| Surgery group | 207 | 125 | 36.2 |
- NCRT group vs Surgery group: reconstructed HR 0.59 (95% CI 0.45–0.79)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | NCRT group | Surgery group |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 93.4% | 89.4% |
| 12 mo | 81.3% | 74.4% |
| 18 mo | 77.5% | 61.8% |
| 24 mo | 74.7% | 57.9% |
| 36 mo | 68.5% | 50.4% |
| 48 mo | 66.8% | 46.7% |
| 60 mo | 63.3% | 43.0% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.6, reconstructed 0.594 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/neocrtec5010-long-term-follow-up-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/neocrtec5010-long-term-follow-up-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: JAMA Surg. 2021 Jun 23;156(8):721–9. doi: 10.1001/jamasurg.2021.2373 doi:10.1001/jamasurg.2021.2373. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/neocrtec5010-long-term-follow-up
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