TrialCurveSTAMPEDE (radiotherapy to the primary tumor): reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
Radiotherapy to the primary tumour for newly diagnosed, metastatic prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): a randomised controlled phase 3 trial. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | Lancet. 2018 Dec 1;392(10162):2353–66. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32486-3 |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32486-3 |
| Registry | NCT00268476 |
| Phase | Phase 2, Phase 3 |
| Conditions | Prostate Cancer |
| Interventions | Celecoxib, Docetaxel, Prednisolone, ADT, Zoledronic Acid, Abiraterone |
| Sponsor | Medical Research Council |
| Enrolment | 11992 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Overall survival
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Radiotherapy 48.0 months; Control 45.7 months. Survival at 18 months: Radiotherapy 87%; Control 84%. Hazard ratio Radiotherapy vs Control 0.92 (95% CI 0.80–1.06).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radiotherapy | 1032 | 367 | 48.0 |
| Control | 1029 | 387 | 45.7 |
- Radiotherapy vs Control: reconstructed HR 0.92 (95% CI 0.80–1.06)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Radiotherapy | Control |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 98.7% | 98.2% |
| 12 mo | 94.0% | 92.7% |
| 18 mo | 87.2% | 84.4% |
| 24 mo | 78.7% | 77.5% |
| 36 mo | 64.7% | 61.3% |
| 48 mo | 50.1% | 48.6% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.92, reconstructed 0.922 pass
Failure-free survival
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Radiotherapy 16.4 months; Control 13.0 months. Survival at 18 months: Radiotherapy 47%; Control 40%. Hazard ratio Radiotherapy vs Control 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.87).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radiotherapy | 1032 | 682 | 16.4 |
| Control | 1029 | 755 | 13.0 |
- Radiotherapy vs Control: reconstructed HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.87)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Radiotherapy | Control |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 79.5% | 70.7% |
| 12 mo | 59.1% | 51.4% |
| 18 mo | 46.9% | 39.5% |
| 24 mo | 38.8% | 30.7% |
| 36 mo | 30.7% | 21.8% |
| 48 mo | 23.1% | 15.7% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.76, reconstructed 0.789 pass
Overall survival — Low metastatic burden
From figure panel A · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Control not reached; Radiotherapy not reached. Survival at 18 months: Control 93%; Radiotherapy 96%. Hazard ratio Radiotherapy vs Control 0.71 (95% CI 0.53–0.93).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control | 409 | 110 | not reached |
| Radiotherapy | 410 | 88 | not reached |
- Radiotherapy vs Control: reconstructed HR 0.71 (95% CI 0.53–0.93)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Control | Radiotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 98.5% | 100.0% |
| 12 mo | 96.3% | 98.5% |
| 18 mo | 92.5% | 96.0% |
| 24 mo | 88.1% | 92.0% |
| 36 mo | 73.5% | 82.2% |
| 48 mo | 59.9% | 66.3% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.68, reconstructed 0.705 pass
Overall survival — High metastatic burden
From figure panel B · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Control 37.8 months; Radiotherapy 36.9 months. Survival at 18 months: Control 79%; Radiotherapy 82%. Hazard ratio Control vs Radiotherapy 0.94 (95% CI 0.79–1.11).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control | 567 | 253 | 37.8 |
| Radiotherapy | 553 | 256 | 36.9 |
- Control vs Radiotherapy: reconstructed HR 0.94 (95% CI 0.79–1.11)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Control | Radiotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 97.7% | 97.8% |
| 12 mo | 90.3% | 91.2% |
| 18 mo | 79.3% | 81.8% |
| 24 mo | 71.4% | 69.4% |
| 36 mo | 52.0% | 50.9% |
| 48 mo | 41.8% | 36.0% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 1.07, reconstructed 1.07 pass
Failure-free survival — Low metastatic burden
From figure panel C · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Control 21.4 months; Radiotherapy 33.8 months. Survival at 18 months: Control 56%; Radiotherapy 68%. Hazard ratio Radiotherapy vs Control 0.61 (95% CI 0.51–0.74).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control | 409 | 259 | 21.4 |
| Radiotherapy | 410 | 204 | 33.8 |
- Radiotherapy vs Control: reconstructed HR 0.61 (95% CI 0.51–0.74)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Control | Radiotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 81.3% | 93.1% |
| 12 mo | 68.1% | 79.5% |
| 18 mo | 55.9% | 67.7% |
| 24 mo | 43.4% | 57.9% |
| 36 mo | 29.4% | 48.9% |
| 48 mo | 20.8% | 39.5% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.59, reconstructed 0.612 pass
Failure-free survival — High metastatic burden
From figure panel D · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Control 8.7 months; Radiotherapy 10.4 months. Survival at 18 months: Control 28%; Radiotherapy 32%. Hazard ratio Radiotherapy vs Control 0.90 (95% CI 0.79–1.03).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control | 567 | 460 | 8.7 |
| Radiotherapy | 553 | 436 | 10.4 |
- Radiotherapy vs Control: reconstructed HR 0.90 (95% CI 0.79–1.03)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Control | Radiotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 63.0% | 69.9% |
| 12 mo | 40.2% | 44.1% |
| 18 mo | 27.6% | 32.3% |
| 24 mo | 20.5% | 24.9% |
| 36 mo | 15.5% | 15.9% |
| 48 mo | 10.6% | 9.4% |
Checks against the published figure
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.88, reconstructed 0.9 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/stampede-radiotherapy-to-the-primary-tumor-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/stampede-radiotherapy-to-the-primary-tumor-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: Lancet. 2018 Dec 1;392(10162):2353–66. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32486-3 doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32486-3. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/stampede-radiotherapy-to-the-primary-tumor
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