TrialCurveKEYNOTE-590 (Japanese subgroup, extended follow-up): reconstructed Kaplan–Meier curves
First-line pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy for advanced/metastatic esophageal cancer: 1-year extended follow-up in the Japanese subgroup of the phase 3 KEYNOTE-590 study. Curves rebuilt as patient-level data (Guyot 2012) and checked against the statistics printed on the figure.
| Publication | Esophagus. 2024 Apr 12;21(3):306–18. doi: 10.1007/s10388-024-01053-z |
|---|---|
| DOI | 10.1007/s10388-024-01053-z |
| Registry | NCT03189719 |
| Phase | Phase 3 |
| Conditions | Esophageal Neoplasms |
| Interventions | Pembrolizumab, Placebo, Cisplatin, 5-FU |
| Sponsor | Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC |
| Enrolment | 749 |
| Source licence | Figure published under CC BY 4.0 |
Overall survival — All randomly assigned patients
From figure panel a · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 17.6 months; Placebo–chemotherapy 11.9 months. Survival at 12 months: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 73%; Placebo–chemotherapy 49%. Hazard ratio Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy 0.70 (95% CI 0.47–1.03).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | 74 | 48 | 17.6 |
| Placebo–chemotherapy | 67 | 53 | 11.9 |
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy: reconstructed HR 0.70 (95% CI 0.47–1.03)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | Placebo–chemotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 89.2% | 88.1% |
| 12 mo | 72.8% | 49.3% |
| 18 mo | 48.1% | 40.3% |
| 24 mo | 41.2% | 34.3% |
| 36 mo | 31.3% | 20.4% |
Checks against the published figure
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy median: printed 17.7, reconstructed 17.6 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy median: printed 11.7, reconstructed 11.9 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy events: printed 49, reconstructed 48 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy n: printed 74, reconstructed 74 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy events: printed 53, reconstructed 53 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy n: printed 67, reconstructed 67 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.7, reconstructed 0.696 pass
Overall survival — Patients with ESCC
From figure panel b · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 17.8 months; Placebo–chemotherapy 11.5 months. Survival at 12 months: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 73%; Placebo–chemotherapy 48%. Hazard ratio Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy 0.65 (95% CI 0.43–0.99).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | 67 | 43 | 17.8 |
| Placebo–chemotherapy | 59 | 47 | 11.5 |
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy: reconstructed HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.43–0.99)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | Placebo–chemotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 88.1% | 91.4% |
| 12 mo | 73.1% | 48.3% |
| 18 mo | 49.3% | 37.9% |
| 24 mo | 43.3% | 32.8% |
| 36 mo | 32.9% | 18.6% |
Checks against the published figure
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy median: printed 17.7, reconstructed 17.8 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy median: printed 11.7, reconstructed 11.5 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy events: printed 43, reconstructed 43 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy n: printed 67, reconstructed 67 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy events: printed 47, reconstructed 47 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy n: printed 59, reconstructed 59 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.67, reconstructed 0.653 pass
Overall survival — Patients with PD-L1 CPS ≥ 10
From figure panel c · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 15.9 months; Placebo–chemotherapy 11.3 months. Survival at 12 months: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 73%; Placebo–chemotherapy 42%. Hazard ratio Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy 0.52 (95% CI 0.32–0.86).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | 48 | 31 | 15.9 |
| Placebo–chemotherapy | 36 | 32 | 11.3 |
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy: reconstructed HR 0.52 (95% CI 0.32–0.86)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | Placebo–chemotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 87.5% | 88.9% |
| 12 mo | 72.9% | 41.7% |
| 18 mo | 47.9% | 30.6% |
| 24 mo | 39.6% | 22.2% |
| 36 mo | 33.6% | 5.6% |
Checks against the published figure
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy median: printed 16.9, reconstructed 15.9 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy median: printed 11.2, reconstructed 11.3 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy events: printed 31, reconstructed 31 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy n: printed 48, reconstructed 48 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy events: printed 31, reconstructed 32 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy n: printed 36, reconstructed 36 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.54, reconstructed 0.523 pass
Progression-free survival — All randomly assigned patients
From figure panel a · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 6.6 months; Placebo–chemotherapy 5.8 months. Survival at 12 months: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 28%; Placebo–chemotherapy 13%. Hazard ratio Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy 0.58 (95% CI 0.40–0.85).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | 74 | 55 | 6.6 |
| Placebo–chemotherapy | 67 | 61 | 5.8 |
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy: reconstructed HR 0.58 (95% CI 0.40–0.85)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | Placebo–chemotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 65.3% | 49.3% |
| 12 mo | 27.8% | 12.8% |
| 18 mo | 24.3% | 8.8% |
| 24 mo | 19.1% | 2.2% |
| 36 mo | 17.0% | — |
Checks against the published figure
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy median: printed 6.3, reconstructed 6.56 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy median: printed 6, reconstructed 5.8 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy events: printed 55, reconstructed 55 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy n: printed 74, reconstructed 74 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy events: printed 60, reconstructed 61 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy n: printed 67, reconstructed 67 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.57, reconstructed 0.583 pass
Progression-free survival — Patients with ESCC
From figure panel b · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 6.6 months; Placebo–chemotherapy 6.2 months. Survival at 12 months: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 30%; Placebo–chemotherapy 13%. Hazard ratio Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy 0.57 (95% CI 0.38–0.85).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | 67 | 49 | 6.6 |
| Placebo–chemotherapy | 59 | 53 | 6.2 |
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy: reconstructed HR 0.57 (95% CI 0.38–0.85)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | Placebo–chemotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 64.8% | 54.3% |
| 12 mo | 30.3% | 12.7% |
| 18 mo | 26.5% | 7.9% |
| 24 mo | 20.9% | 2.6% |
| 36 mo | 18.5% | — |
Checks against the published figure
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy median: printed 6.4, reconstructed 6.56 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy median: printed 6.1, reconstructed 6.2 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy events: printed 48, reconstructed 49 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy n: printed 67, reconstructed 67 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy events: printed 53, reconstructed 53 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy n: printed 59, reconstructed 59 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.56, reconstructed 0.572 pass
Progression-free survival — Patients with PD-L1 CPS ≥ 10
From figure panel c · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 8.3 months; Placebo–chemotherapy 4.2 months. Survival at 12 months: Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy 32%; Placebo–chemotherapy 3%. Hazard ratio Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy 0.34 (95% CI 0.20–0.57).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | 48 | 34 | 8.3 |
| Placebo–chemotherapy | 36 | 33 | 4.2 |
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy vs Placebo–chemotherapy: reconstructed HR 0.34 (95% CI 0.20–0.57)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy | Placebo–chemotherapy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 65.9% | 32.5% |
| 12 mo | 32.0% | 3.0% |
| 18 mo | 26.7% | 3.0% |
| 24 mo | 21.4% | — |
| 36 mo | 21.4% | — |
Checks against the published figure
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy median: printed 8.2, reconstructed 8.29 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy median: printed 4.3, reconstructed 4.23 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy events: printed 34, reconstructed 34 pass
- Pembrolizumab–chemotherapy n: printed 48, reconstructed 48 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy events: printed 33, reconstructed 33 pass
- Placebo–chemotherapy n: printed 36, reconstructed 36 pass
- hazard ratio (direction inferred): printed 0.36, reconstructed 0.34 pass
Overall survival — All randomly assigned patients in the pembrolizumab–chemotherapy group, by early tumor shrinkage (ETS) ≥20% vs <20%
From figure panel a · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: ETS ≥20% 28.4 months; ETS <20% 6.5 months. Survival at 12 months: ETS ≥20% 87%; ETS <20% 32%. Hazard ratio ETS ≥20% vs ETS <20% 0.23 (95% CI 0.12–0.42).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETS ≥20% | 55 | 32 | 28.4 |
| ETS <20% | 19 | 17 | 6.5 |
- ETS ≥20% vs ETS <20%: reconstructed HR 0.23 (95% CI 0.12–0.42)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | ETS ≥20% | ETS <20% |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 100.0% | 57.9% |
| 12 mo | 87.3% | 31.6% |
| 18 mo | 61.8% | 10.5% |
| 24 mo | 52.7% | 10.5% |
| 36 mo | 37.6% | 10.5% |
Checks against the published figure
- ETS ≥20% median: printed 28.4, reconstructed 28.4 pass
- ETS <20% median: printed 6.4, reconstructed 6.53 pass
- ETS ≥20% events: printed 32, reconstructed 32 pass
- ETS ≥20% n: printed 55, reconstructed 55 pass
- ETS <20% events: printed 17, reconstructed 17 pass
- ETS <20% n: printed 19, reconstructed 19 pass
- hazard ratio: printed 0.23, reconstructed 0.229 pass
Progression-free survival — All randomly assigned patients in the pembrolizumab–chemotherapy group, by early tumor shrinkage (ETS) ≥20% vs <20%
From figure panel b · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: ETS ≥20% 8.3 months; ETS <20% 4.0 months. Survival at 12 months: ETS ≥20% 35%; ETS <20% 6%. Hazard ratio ETS ≥20% vs ETS <20% 0.25 (95% CI 0.14–0.45).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETS ≥20% | 55 | 38 | 8.3 |
| ETS <20% | 19 | 17 | 4.0 |
- ETS ≥20% vs ETS <20%: reconstructed HR 0.25 (95% CI 0.14–0.45)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | ETS ≥20% | ETS <20% |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 77.7% | 28.0% |
| 12 mo | 35.3% | 5.6% |
| 18 mo | 30.6% | 5.6% |
| 24 mo | 23.5% | 5.6% |
| 36 mo | 20.9% | — |
Checks against the published figure
- ETS ≥20% median: printed 8.2, reconstructed 8.3 pass
- ETS <20% median: printed 3.9, reconstructed 4.05 pass
- ETS ≥20% events: printed 38, reconstructed 38 pass
- ETS ≥20% n: printed 55, reconstructed 55 pass
- ETS <20% events: printed 17, reconstructed 17 pass
- ETS <20% n: printed 19, reconstructed 19 pass
- hazard ratio: printed 0.24, reconstructed 0.248 pass
Overall survival — All randomly assigned patients in the pembrolizumab–chemotherapy group, by depth of response (DpR) ≥60% vs <60%
From figure panel c · validated against the values printed on the figure · curve source: pixel measurement confirmed by vision model
Reconstructed from the published curve. Median: DpR ≥60% 35.8 months; DpR <60% 13.8 months. Survival at 12 months: DpR ≥60% 87%; DpR <60% 63%. Hazard ratio DpR ≥60% vs DpR <60% 0.37 (95% CI 0.20–0.68).
| Arm | N | Events | Median (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|
| DpR ≥60% | 31 | 15 | 35.8 |
| DpR <60% | 43 | 34 | 13.8 |
- DpR ≥60% vs DpR <60%: reconstructed HR 0.37 (95% CI 0.20–0.68)
Landmark survival (reconstructed)
| Time | DpR ≥60% | DpR <60% |
|---|---|---|
| 6 mo | 100.0% | 81.4% |
| 12 mo | 87.1% | 62.8% |
| 18 mo | 74.2% | 30.2% |
| 24 mo | 61.3% | 27.9% |
| 36 mo | 46.2% | 20.1% |
Checks against the published figure
- DpR ≥60% median: printed 35.8, reconstructed 35.8 pass
- DpR <60% median: printed 13.9, reconstructed 13.8 pass
- DpR ≥60% events: printed 15, reconstructed 15 pass
- DpR ≥60% n: printed 31, reconstructed 31 pass
- DpR <60% events: printed 34, reconstructed 34 pass
- DpR <60% n: printed 43, reconstructed 43 pass
- hazard ratio: printed 0.37, reconstructed 0.369 pass
About these data
Pseudo-IPD reproduces the published curves and numbers at risk; the rows are not real patients. Cite the publication (DOI above) and TrialCurve. The source figure is © the authors (CC BY 4.0); the charts here are redrawn from the reconstruction.
Load these data in R or Python
# R
library(survival)
d <- read.csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/keynote-590-japanese-subgroup-extended-follow-up-1.csv")
survfit(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
coxph(Surv(time, event) ~ arm, data = d)
# Python
import pandas as pd
from lifelines import KaplanMeierFitter
d = pd.read_csv("https://trialcurve.com/data/trials/keynote-590-japanese-subgroup-extended-follow-up-1.csv")
for arm, g in d.groupby("arm"):
KaplanMeierFitter().fit(g.time, g.event, label=arm).plot_survival_function()
Suggested citation: Esophagus. 2024 Apr 12;21(3):306–18. doi: 10.1007/s10388-024-01053-z doi:10.1007/s10388-024-01053-z. Reconstructed data: TrialCurve (2026), https://trialcurve.com/trials/keynote-590-japanese-subgroup-extended-follow-up
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